Going way out on the limb before the election

by David Grand
November 5, 2008

Had no choice other than to predict the results beforehand, since I had to submit this column by no later than Monday. And I'll know the day before it's published whether the limb was cut off behind me and find myself falling to the ground like a treed, tranquillized bear. Hopefully, I'd bounce or there'd be firemen holding a net to cushion my fall.

Now, while I've always believed as Winston Churchill said, "you can only predict things after they've happened," this is one instance where I've thrown caution to the wind and hereby declare, to one and all, that Obama will win in a cliffhanger and (of specific importance to Marylanders) that the referendum on having 15,000 slots distributed among the racetracks will be approved overwhelmingly. (I can almost hear the racehorses neighing with glee.)

You'll notice I haven't bothered to predict what the results will be in the congressional races, for I'm confident that the Democrats will end up having a filibuster proof majority in both houses. And in the event that McCain were to pull off the biggest upset since the 1948 election (when Truman, the underdog, triumphed over Dewey), they'd have sufficient numbers in which to override his vetoes of any legislation they passed.

By the way, if you've wondered as I have why Congress settled on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November for federal elections, we have to go back to 1845 for an explanation. The actual reasons, as shown in records of Congressional debate on the bill in December 1844, were for practical purposes.

An election date in November was seen as useful because the harvest would have been completed (important in an largely agrarian society) and the winter storms would not yet have begun, a plus in the days before paved roads and snowplows.

As for the day of the week that was chosen, since most farmers traveling by horse and buggy needed a day to get to the county seat, a day to vote and a day to get back (without interfering with the Sabbath), that left either Tuesday or Wednesday. But the latter was market day. So, Tuesday it was.

Both parties oppose this date, believing that it decreases voter turnout since it's part of the workweek, and prefer making election day a federal holiday. (Workers would, I'm sure, wholeheartedly concur.)

To build in more flexibility, many states have implemented early voting (often up to two weeks early); and all states have some kind of absentee ballot system.

My feeling is, that as energized as voters are about what has been referred to as the most important election in the nation's history, neither rain, snow or sleet will deter the estimated 139 million voters from going to the polls, short of coming down with the flu bug or spraining an ankle playing touch football. But even then, I'd bet most of 'em would still get there, coughing or limping as they may be along the way.